Projected free-atmospheric temperatures (ºC) at approximately 10,000 ft. at 11 a.m. Sunday. Source: pivotalweather.com
JACKSON, Wyo. — A major change to the weather pattern will occur this weekend as a Pacific storm system arrives on Sunday along with a strong cold front. A significant cool-down will occur on Sunday and Monday along with the first widespread snow event of the season for the mountains.
Friday
Temperatures started out very chilly on Friday morning with a low of 23ºF in Jackson, but we will warm up nicely on Friday afternoon with highs reaching the mid 70s. Breezy southwest winds will develop once again on Friday afternoon with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph in the valley, and 20-30 mph with gusts to 50-60 mph over the higher peaks.
We may also see a little bit of light smoke arrive on Friday afternoon, similar to yesterday, but nothing like what we’ve seen in recent weeks. The latest smoke transport models indicate most of this smoke clearing out on Saturday morning.
Taking a look at the satellite image from late Friday morning, we can already see the storm system beginning to impact the Pacific Northwest:
Saturday
Saturday will start out mostly sunny with continued windy conditions (similar if not slightly stronger compared to Friday). Highs will top out in the low 70s in the valley on Saturday afternoon.
However, a leading-edge disturbance will arrive on Saturday afternoon with widely scattered showers expected from early Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, though instability looks marginal.
Showers from this disturbance will only produce light rain amounts over Teton County, but it would still be a good idea to throw in a rain jacket if you’re spending time outdoors. Farther south, more widespread shower/thunderstorm coverage can be expected in the Salt River and Wind River Ranges.
Snow levels shouldn’t drop any lower than 11,000 feet or so from any showers that persist later into the evening on Saturday.
Sunday
Sunday is when our big change will occur, and the system we’ve been talking about this week is trending toward an earlier arrival.
Sunday morning will start out with windy conditions and even a slight chance of showers early in the day. A strong cold front is now projected to arrive around midday Sunday with wind gusts of 40+ mph possible in the valley and 70+ mph over the higher peaks around the time the front moves through.
Widespread showers will develop behind the front on Sunday afternoon and continue through Sunday evening with snow levels falling to the 7,000-7,500 ft. range by late afternoon/early evening. In other words, it will be a cold and wet afternoon for spending time outdoors.
Highs on Sunday will reach the low 60s in the valley around midday before the front arrives, but by late Sunday afternoon, temperatures will fall into the 40s in the valley.
Later Sunday night, most of the energy with this system will move east of the area with showers becoming more scattered and terrain-driven in nature.
Monday
Lighter showers will continue from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon with snow levels dipping to 6,500 feet or lower on Monday morning. Don’t be shocked to see a few snowflakes in the Town of Jackson first thing on Monday morning.
By Monday afternoon, snow levels will rise to 7,000-7,500 feet or so with shower activity tapering off by early Monday evening. Temperatures will remain very chilly on Monday with highs in the low 50s in the valley.
Snow totals will generally range from 1-4 inches above 8,000 feet in the Tetons, Gros Ventre, Salt River/Wyoming Ranges and Northern Wind River Range with isolated higher amounts possible. Farther north, snow totals will be a little higher (3-6″ or so) across the higher elevations of Yellowstone as well as the Beartooth, Absaroka and SW Montana ranges.
Rain/precipitation totals in the Jackson Hole Valley on Sunday-Monday will range from a quarter-inch to a half-inch, with a half-inch to an inch (or more) of liquid-equivalent precipitation for the higher elevations.
Check out the projected precipitation map below for all of the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies to get an overall idea of regional impacts from this system. It’s nice to see that some of the moisture will extend into Northern California as well!
Conditions will start to dry on Monday night with cold temperatures on Tuesday morning giving way to sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the 60s.
Extended Range Outlook
A weak disturbance and cold front are expected around Thursday/Friday of next week, but precipitation chances look marginal (only light showers at the most) and a significant cool-down is not expected. By next weekend, we will see a warming and drying trend with highs likely getting back into the 70s.
Five Day Temperature and Precipitation Forecast for Teton County
About The Author
Buckrail Meteorologist Alan Smith
Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has worked in the private sector of weather forecasting since 2013 and has lived in Jackson since 2015. Alan specializes in mountain weather and forecasts for ski areas across North America.
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