Evening cold front brings overnight rain, isolated thunderstorm chance - KBTX

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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - The next cold front to reach the Brazos Valley opens up the chance for scattered rain by Sunday evening. Parts of the Brazos Valley Monday may be jolted awake before the alarm rings as a fast-moving disturbance jets out of Mexico to the northeast across Texas.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the Brazos Valley under a MARGINAL - 1 out of 5 - Risk for isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms. To be clear, this is a broad area of Texas under this risk -- from South Texas, up the entire I-35 corridor through Central and North Texas, to the Arklatex, along with the Brazos Valley. The higher risk for severe weather falls just northeast of the area, across Northeast Texas and Arkansas.

CONCERNS:

• Hail penny size or larger.
• Heavy rain that could produce a quick 1/2″ to 1″ as stronger storms pass by. Minor, brief low-lying / street flooding would be short-lived issues.

Isolated strong-to-briefly severe storms are possible, mainly through the pre-sunrise hours of Monday.(KBTX)

Overall severe threat is low, mainly because the disturbance responsible for this storm chance should arrive behind Sunday evening’s cold front. Instability will be lower which should help mitigate the overall concerns as this storm chance materializes.

TIMING

Evening cold front brings the chance for rain, isolated rumble shorty after sunrise. Isolated spot of rain possible as early as 5pm.

Disturbances runs past in the pre-sunrise hours of Monday. Could produce loud rumbles, brief heavy rain, & isolated hail 3am - 6am #bcstx pic.twitter.com/Ci9acnygeT

— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) February 28, 2021

Sunday’s cold front is scheduled to arrive in the North and Central Brazos Valley between 7pm and 9pm. While that could produce a few rumbles of thunder of its own, this should mostly remain of the scattered rain variety.

Isolated pockets of heavier rain will be possible, arriving from the west, between midnight and 2am. The main round of activity, should storms be worth monitoring, arrives between 3am and 6am Monday.

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RAINFALL

By sunrise Monday, 0.25″ to 0.75″ of rain will be possible, mainly across the North and Central Brazos Valley. Another 0.5″ or more of rain will be possible through the day Monday, as this cold front lingers and finally pushes south of the area.

Forecast rainfall across the Brazos Valley between Sunday night and Monday afternoon(KBTX)

All said and done, 0.75″ to 1.0″ of rain is not far-fetched for the Brazos Valley, with localized 1.5″ or higher totals possible across the Northeast and Eastern Brazos Valley if the early morning round of rain and storms manages to produce higher totals.

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Evening cold front brings overnight rain, isolated thunderstorm chance - KBTX
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