Here comes another November warm front.
And this one could push temperatures even higher than the record warmth earlier this week.
It’s noteworthy that forecast models (again) underestimated our extreme unseasonable warmth Tuesday and Wednesday. This happens often as forecast models usually try and revert closer to seasonal norms. Many models and forecasters are too conservative with these extreme events.
Now that I’ve walked myself out on that precarious forecast limb, Friday’s warm spell still looks stronger to me than the record warm push earlier this week. I think the forecast models are underestimating Friday’s high temperatures by several degrees.
Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s digital output for high temperatures Friday afternoon.
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA
The forecast high of 73 seems about 3 to 5 degrees too low for Friday. My temperature computations come out to between 76 and 78 for Friday afternoon in the Twin Cities. Friday’s record high in the Twin Cities is 73 degrees set in 1893. I think we’ll blow past that by around 2 to 3 p.m. Friday. Highs in the 80s are likely again in southwest Minnesota.
The only fly in the forecast is if a few high clouds Friday are thicker than currently forecast. The inbound air mass is capable of delivering record warmth Friday and Saturday.
Mild temperatures continue through Sunday. Again, I think the forecast high-temperature map below is several degrees too low for Sunday afternoon.
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA
Warm, but windy
One notable change with our weekend warmup is the wind. Breezes will build to around 20 mph by late Friday. Saturday and Sunday will be downright windy. Sustained winds between 15 and 20 mph with higher gusts are almost certain this weekend.
Wind gusts Saturday afternoon
NOAA
Be careful if you are brave enough to think about heading out on our rough lakes this weekend. That water is frigid.
November reality check next week
The jest stream dives southward from Canada next week. That will pump much colder air into the Upper Midwest all week long.
Upper air forecast map for 6 pm November 15
NOAA
Highs next week will run in the 30s and 40s across Minnesota.
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA
More 50s?
There are a few signs temperature may moderate again after about November 15. I think we’re done with 70s and 80s in Minnesota after this week. But a few modes suggest more 50s may lie ahead for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota in mid-November.
NOAA’s 8 to 14-day outlook favors milder than average temperatures.
NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA
Stay tuned.
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