A week from Saturday, the Triple Crown starts. If this were a normal year, the Triple Crown would already be over. But, as we all know, the coronavirus pandemic has made this year anything but normal.
The Belmont Stakes kicks off the Triple Crown next Saturday, and due to a dizzying amount of defections in the past few weeks, Tiz the Law, who has been atop our Triple Crown Dozen since it started back in February, will be the overwhelming favorite when the Belmont is run at 1 1/8 miles rather than the traditional 1 1/2 miles. Crazy year.
We have lost Nadal and Charlatan and Maxfield and Wells Bayou — all horses that had a spot on this list — to injury. But, let's not just roll out the Triple Crown trophy and give it to Tiz the Law just yet. Although, if he stays healthy, he is going to have a heckuva shot to win the Belmont and then the Kentucky Derby in September and the Preakness in October.
Last weekend, a new horse emerged as the best of the West. His name is Honor A.P. and I'm sure Jack Knowlton, the operating manager of Sackatoga Stable, which owns Tiz the Law, sat up and took notice.
The dark brown son of Honor Code won the Santa Anita Derby by 2 3/4 lengths and disposed of the last of the imposing three still standing from trainer Bob Baffert. Authentic, after an awkward start, was no match for Honor A.P. and jockey Mike Smith.
"He can run," Honor A.P.'s trainer John Shirreffs said by phone from California. "I wasn't surprised and I was hopeful he could do what he did."
The Santa Anita Derby, originally scheduled for April 4, was postponed because of the pandemic and rescheduled to last Saturday. Shirreffs could have sent his horse to New York for the Belmont but kept with his original decision to stay in California. And that is where he will likely stay before he jumps in the Triple Crown pool in September.
If he runs again before the Derby, it will likely be in the $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar at 1 1/16 miles on Aug. 1. When asked if he thought about possibly shipping east to run in the Travers at Saratoga (date TBA), Shirreffs didn't totally rule it out but sounded more like he would prefer to stay home.
"If you go east, you have to fly over the Rockies," he said, referring to the Rocky Mountains. "That's a big deal, and then you have to fly back. That's a lot of air time. We are just going to wait and see. It's a lot easier running out of your own stall."
Shirreffs is no stranger to being around good horses. He won the Kentucky Derby in 2005 with Giacomo. He was the trainer of the legendary Zenyatta. He knows how to get them ready for a big race.
Honor A.P. has raced four times in his career and has two wins and two seconds. In his first start this year, he was second to Authentic in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 7 in California. He likely needed that race as it was his first start since breaking his maiden as a 2-year-old on Oct. 13.
Now he looks like he has settled in and is set to make a run for the best 3-year-old in the land. Right now, I still take Tiz the Law, but Honor A.P. is gaining. He just puts his head down and goes to work.
"This is what every trainer dreams about," Shirreffs said, "and that is having a horse like him."
twilkin@timesunion.com • 518-454-5415 • @tjwilkin
Rank (Prev.) Horse Trainer Jockey Comment
1 (1). Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg Manny Franco East Coast's best is back home in New York, has one more work before 1 1/8-mile Belmont Stakes on June 20, in which he will be big favorite, no reason to remove him from top spot.
2 (4). Honor A.P. John Shirreffs Mike Smith Showed he is going to be a major factor after winning Santa Anita Derby, should get better as the races get longer, will likely stay on West Coast for next start.
3 (3). Authentic Bob Baffert Drayden Van Dyke Unbeaten no more after finishing second in Santa Anita following awkward start, might see him next in Monmouth's Haskell on July 18.
4. (5) King Guillermo Juan Carlos Avila Samy Camacho Proved Tampa Bay Derby win at 49-1 was no fluke after a solid second to recently retired Nadal in division of Arkansas Derby, the plan is to train the horse up to the Kentucky Derby Sept. 5, that's 12 weeks!
5. (7). Sole Volante Patrick Biancone Luca Panici Rallied to win allowance at Gulfstream in first start since second in Tampa Bay Derby, looking to wheel right back in Belmont Stakes.
6. (9) Basin Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana Jr. Last year's Hopeful winner was distant second to Charlatan in first division of Arkansas Derby, starting to get into the picture, going to Belmont.
7 (8). Ete Indian Patrick Biancone Florent Geroux Was the favorite in allowance race won by Sole Volante on Wednesday and faded to fourth after setting pace, Haskell next?
8 (11) Enforceable Mark Casse Julien Leparoux Last seen running third in Louisiana Derby on March 21, will run twice before the Derby, per Casse, but not in the Belmont.
9. (NR) Cezanne Bob Baffert Flavien Pratt $3.65 million son of Curlin began career with 2 1/4-length win at Santa Anita going 6 1/2 furlongs last Saturday, can be a Derby player by September.
10. (11) Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher John Velazquez Still waiting for him to pop a big one, Pletcher rerouting him to Blue Grass at Keeneland on July 11 rather than Belmont next weekend.
11. (12). NY Traffic Saffie Joseph Jr. Paco Lopez Had hit the board in past three graded stakes, including a second in Grade III Matt Winn behind departed Maxfield, will go in either Belmont, Haskell or Blue Grass next.
12 (NR) Modernist Bill Mott Junior Alvarado Hasn't been seen since a third in Louisiana Derby on March 21, won Risen Star before that, Belmont Stakes the target.
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