Tripping Over Big Puddles Again Today
"What good is the warmth of summer, without the cold of winter to give it sweetness" mused John Steinbeck. Without the sting of wind chill and slushy commutes would summer have the same allure? Maybe not in San Diego or Honolulu, but Minnesota? Oh yeah.
Over 3 decades of having my butt kicked by Mother Nature I've made startling discoveries. Cold frontal rains are most likely around the dinner hour. But warm frontal rains in May and June tend to arrive late at night and morning hours. I've found (the hard way) that midday events stand a better chance of avoiding big puddles this time of year.
Another wave of low pressure squeezes out more rain today, heavy at times. We dry out Wednesday, with a push of cooler air late week. Any light jackets early Saturday give way to shorts next week as daytime highs rise consistently into the 80s. NOAA's GFS model is still advertising a few sweaty days in the 90s.
Be careful what you wish for. Hot air is imminent. Maybe we should enjoy one more serving of free A/C?
Image credit above: Paul Douglas.
Sloppy Tuesday Blues. Is it Tuesday? Are you sure? Does it even matter? Models show a few more waves of rain pushing across the state before we begin to slowly dry out on Wednesday.
Cooling Trend by Late Week. After flirting with 80F Wednesday and Thursday temperatures cool off late week, before rebounding with a vengeance next week (streak of 80s, maybe a few 90s). Map sequence above: Praedictix and AerisWeather.
Sunshine Returns Thursday and Friday. ECMWF data (above) suggests a few showers spilling into Wednesday before we finally dry out and cool off later in the week. Meteogram: Windy.com.
Real Heat Next Week? Another meteorological mirage, or will the heat finally make it all the way to Minnesota? The models have been...off in recent weeks. It's easy to blame a lack of aircraft data, but that may be one of multiple factors why model results have been less than optimal. Both ECMWF (top) and GFS (bottom) suggest the arrival of summerlike air next week. Finally. Credit: WeatherBell.
Warmer Than Average Start to June for Much of USA. That includes Minnesota and Wisconsin, with a weak Omega Block keeping the Pacific Northwest and New England chillier than average until mid-month.
Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2020. Well, that's not good, especially with the background hum of pandemic that flavors every decision. Here's an excerpt from NOAA: "An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes..."
Madden-Julian Oscillation Could Help Provide Earlier Forecasts for U.S. Tornadoes. A story at WeatherNation caught my eye: "...While past studies have also found a correlation between the MJO and tornado activity in the United States from March through July, the new study found a much more robust correlation during the late Spring and early Summer (May through July). A summary of the correlation posted on NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) page states,”When the moving thunderstorm is passing across Indonesia to the Pacific, the air across Central America becomes very dry due to changes in the Walker circulation that moves upper-level air westward and lower-level air eastward across the tropical Pacific. The drying air across Central America redirects the low-level air flow to enhance the supply of warm and moist air into the U.S. east of the Rockies..."
America's Patchwork Pandemic is Fraying Even Further. The Atlantic ventures baby-steps on what may be coming down the road: "...A patchwork pandemic is psychologically perilous. The measures that most successfully contain the virus—testing people, tracing any contacts they might have infected, isolating them from others—all depend on “how engaged and invested the population is,” says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. “If you have all the resources in the world and an antagonistic relationship with the people, you’ll fail.” Testing matters only if people agree to get tested. Tracing succeeds only if people pick up the phone. And if those fail, the measure of last resort—social distancing—works only if people agree to sacrifice some personal freedom for the good of others. Such collective actions are aided by collective experiences. What happens when that experience unravels?..."
Image credit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Study Shows Vulnerable Populations With Less Education More Like to Believe, Share Misinformation. Critical-thinking skills have never been more important than they are today, according to new research from The University of Kansas: "As the COVID-19 pandemic threatens public health around the world, misinformation regarding its treatment, causes and cures has abounded. A University of Kansas study has found that vulnerable populations, often those most severely affected by such crises, are also at a high risk of consuming and sharing such misinformation online, while also struggling to assess information’s credibility. What’s more, when misinformation is related to a topic people are personally involved in, they are more likely to believe and share it. KU journalism and mass communications researchers conducted a study in which they presented low-income, older African Americans a dubious health-related story, then conducted surveys and in-person interviews to learn more about how they assessed it..."
Restaurant of the Future? Is it just me, or is this is more car wash than restaurant? CNN Travel has details: "...One Japanese pub is taking a novel approach to customer safety. Visitors to Kichiri Shinjuku, a traditional Japanese-style pub known as an "izakaya," are sprayed with a fine mist of disinfectant before they are allowed to enter. "We want customers to feel safe when they come inside," spokeswoman Rieko Matsunaga told CNN. "This is geared to promote social distancing and prevent infections." Upon arrival at the pub in the Shinjuku district of Tokyo, customers are greeted by a hostess on a monitor, who tells them to wash their hands and take their temperature with a thermometer. Next, they walk into what looks like an airport security scanner, where they are sprayed with a mist of chlorine-based disinfectant for 30 seconds..."
Millions of Cicadas Expected to Emerge After 17 Years Underground, Because - Of Course - It's 2020. What else can go wrong. CNN.com explains: "As if we didn't have enough to worry about with giant murder hornets invading the US and a global pandemic, millions of 17-year cicadas will emerge from the ground this year. As many as 1.5 million cicadas per acre may emerge, and people living in Southwest Virginia, parts of North Carolina and West Virginia could witness this unique phenomenon, Virginia Tech says in a news release. Luckily, cicadas are harmless to humans. At most, the noise they make could become a nuisance..."
Be Like Mike: What Founders Can Learn From the Last Dance. Which I'm enjoying far more than I thought I would. Kudos to ESPN for creating something pretty extraordinary. Here's an excerpt from a solid story at Medium: "...Phil’s key insight was that an offense based solely around MJ was too predictable and therefore easy to defend against. Prior coach Doug Collins’ playbook was “give the ball to Michael and get out of the way.” Phil’s triangle offense was all about creating threats including but not limited to MJ. It was a flexible system that allowed every player to contribute their strengths and complement each other. Being the best player on the court only gets you so far. To win big, founders need to surround themselves with other greats and role players, working in a system that brings out the best in everyone..."
Image credit: clutchpoints.com.
78 F. high yesterday in the Twin Cities.
72 F. average high on May 25.
69 F. high on May 25, 2019.
May 26, 1929: A tornado rakes Freeborn County and causes 10,000 dollars of damage to farms. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.
TUESDAY: Rain, heavy at times. Winds: S 8-13. High: 76
WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine, the lake beckons. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: near 80
THURSDAY: More clouds than sun, stiff breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 62. High: 78
FRIDAY: Comfortable sunshine, less humid. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 55. High: 72
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun. Touch of September in the air. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 50. High: 69
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, probably dry. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 51. High: 72
MONDAY: Windy and hot under sunny skies. Winds: S 15-35. Wake-up: 59. High: 86
Climate Stories...
Heat Beyond Human Tolerance? Interesting perspective about "wetbulb" temperature limits, which are already being crossed across much of the planet. Here's an excerpt from ThePrint: "...Modeling studies had already indicated that wetbulb temperatures could regularly cross 35°C if the world sails past the 2°C warming limit set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, with The Persian Gulf, South Asia and North China Plain on the frontline of deadly humid heat. Our analysis of wetbulb temperatures from 1979-2017 did not disagree with these warnings about what may be to come. But whereas past studies had looked at relatively large regions (on the scale of major metropolitan areas), we also examined thousands of weather station records worldwide and saw that, at this more local scale, many sites were closing in much more rapidly on the 35°C limit..."
Climate Change in Deep Oceans Could Be 7 Times Faster by Middle of Century, Report Says. The Guardian summarizes new research: "Rates of climate change in the world’s ocean depths could be seven times higher than current levels by the second half of this century even if emissions of greenhouse gases were cut dramatically, according to new research. Different global heating at different depths could have major impacts on ocean wildlife, causing disconnects as species that rely on each other for survival are forced to move. In the new research, scientists looked at a measure called climate velocity – the speed at which species would need to move to stay within their preferred temperature range as different ocean layers warm..."
Rising Waters: The Real Story is Climate Speed. Postandcourier.com in Charleston, South Carolina has the first episode in a series; here's a snippet: "A two-hour cloudburst drenched Charleston on Wednesday, turning downtown streets into swirling rivers. Nearly 5 inches fell over the city’s hospitals, turning the medical district into an island. Five inches fell on Johns Island, turning parking lots into lakes. It was a mess. And it’s not normal. Set aside the notion of climate change. The climate has always changed. The real story is about speed. The pace of change. From rain bombs to higher sea levels, the impacts are coming faster. This is as real as Wednesday’s storm. And the one four weeks ago. And so many others in the past five years. In the coming months, The Post and Courier will explore these accelerating forces and their many ripple effects..."
Why Some Spots on the Planet Are Heating Up Faster Than Others. The Washington Post reports: "...For example, temperatures in the Arctic summer — when the sun shines 24/7 — are typically moderated by sea ice, which reflects most of the sun’s rays back into space. But summertime ice cover at the pole has been rapidly shrinking. It’s now half a million square miles smaller than the average since 1981. More exposed ocean means more sunlight gets absorbed as heat, which melts the ice even further. This feedback loop is responsible for making the Arctic the fastest-warming place on the planet. Changes in one part of the planet can destabilize climate systems elsewhere. Scientists say the loss of sea ice in the waters north of Japan has triggered a chain reaction that threatens an entire Pacific ecosystem. Historically, when the ocean surface froze it would expel huge amounts of salt into the waters below, creating a dense, nutrient-rich current that flowed East across the Pacific..."
Illustration credit: Michael Parkin for The Washington Post.
Climate Change: Top 10 Tips to Reduce Carbon Footprint Revealed. BBC News has the post; here's an excerpt: "...Top of the list is living car-free, which saves an average of 2.04 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person annually. This is followed by driving a battery electric car - 1.95 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person annually - and taking one less long-haul flight each year - 1.68 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person. Switching to a vegan diet will help - but less than tackling transport, the research shows. It says popular activities such as recycling are worthwhile, but don’t cut emissions by as much..."
The Strongest, Most Dangerous Hurricanes Are Now Far More Likely Because of Climate Change, Study Shows. Capital Weather Gang has more details and perspective on the trends: "A new study provides observational evidence that the odds of major hurricanes around the world — Category 3, 4 and 5 storms — are increasing because of human-caused global warming. The implications of this finding, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, are far-reaching for coastal residents, insurers and policymakers, as the most intense hurricanes cause the most damage. The study, by a group of researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Wisconsin at Madison, builds on previous research that found a trend, though not a statistically robust one, toward stronger tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones are a category of storms including hurricanes and typhoons worldwide..."
Hurricane Irma file image from September 5, 2017: NOAA and AerisWeather.
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Another Inch of Rain Possible Tonight - Risk of a Real Hot Front Next Week - Minneapolis Star Tribune
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